Saturday, July 23, 2011

Certainty - afterwords

My previous post - Maps of Certainty - juxtaposes the physical evidence of a recurring sunrise against the existence of a god. Using the 99.997% certainty figure that I assigned to my expectation that the sun will rise tomorrow, just the inverse can be assigned to the existence of god. I have never seen, heard, felt, tasted or smelled him; I have never met anyone who has; I have never heard of anyone who has evidence to even imply that this is a subject that bears serious research. But I can play Pascal's Wager and say ... "there is a chance". However small, someday during my lifetime, someone may present an awestruck world with evidence that god is here, and he wants us all to have ponies. So I'll assign a certainty of 1 in 36,525 or 00.003%. That's pretty optimistic, given that among tens of billions of people over ten thousand days each, there has never been one credible shred of evidence of god. That value, like its inverse that I use to adjudge the certainty of sunrise occurring, has some meaning to me in real life terms. It fact, maybe I ought to be using a one-in-tens-of-billions-times-ten-thousand figure to represent the evidence that in 100 trillion person-days, there has never been a credible god encounter - of the third kind - or the second kind - or of the first kind.

Maybe the more accurate number to assign to my god certainty is 0.00000000000001%.

The physical (lack of) evidence indicates that there is no god. Not any representation of god ... no Ahura Mazda, no Zeus, no Odin, no Yahweh, no Allah, no Vishnu. This absence of evidence, as they say, is not evidence of absence, but it is an indication that god - any god - is a remote, remote, remote concept. A one-in-100-trillion-person-days-and-counting kind of remote. He/She/It may appear at 1:15PM GMT tomorrow, but it would defy the odds. I can say with 99 trillion, 999 billion, 999 million, 999 thousand and 999 out of 100 trillion certainty that god will not appear at 1:15PM GMT tomorrow.

I believe, given those odds, that god, any god, does not exist.

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